The Jakis Family Is Scheming to Seize the Vintish Throne
A chain of convenient deaths and illnesses suggests Ambrose's family is maneuvering toward the throne, possibly backed by the Chandrian.
About: Ambrose Jakis, Vintas
Also involves: Maer Lerand Alveron, Caudicus, The Chandrian, Cinder, Kvothe, Denna, Laurian, Arliden, The University, Bredon, Surthen Family
The theory§
The Jakis family stands roughly a dozen steps from the Vintish throne, and a string of convenient deaths and illnesses suggests they are quietly clearing the path toward it. The entire Surthen family is lost at sea, advancing Baron Jakis's line from sixteenth toward thirteenth; Baron Jakis's holdings are the pirate Isles, making such a loss suspiciously useful. Maer Alveron, seventh in line and the man who would inherit should the Calanthis king fall, is kept chronically ill by his arcanist Caudicus, who once lodged for a long time on the Jakis estate. The theory weaves these threads into a single design and speculates that the Chandrian, or Cinder acting through Bredon, are steering the Jakis upward, with Ambrose's father (identified by some as Denna's patron Master Ash) and even Ambrose himself eventually reaching the throne, making Kvothe the literal king-killer. A complication remains: Caudicus volunteers gossip about Baron Jakis to Kvothe and seems disappointed when it is ignored, behaviour ill-suited to a secret confederate of a powerful and vengeful patron.
Evidence§
Sim mentioning that the "entire Surthen family was lost at sea" and that it meant Ambrose's father was now 13 rather than 16th in line for the throne.
OP's first pillar: convenient deaths advance the Jakis line toward the throne. — u/No1IsraelHaterThe Maer being kept in a state of fragile health by an Arcanist for reasons never explained.
OP's second pillar: chronic illness of a high-ranking claimant points to a scheme. — u/No1IsraelHaterThe Chancellor "falling ill" suddenly, and having his position taken over by a toady who previously showed favoritism for Ambrose over Kvothe.
OP's third pillar: another convenient illness benefiting Ambrose's side. — u/No1IsraelHaterCould these be part of a larger scheme by the Jakis family to take control of the realm for their own ends?
OP frames the threads as a single Jakis design on the realm. — u/No1IsraelHaterIf we believe that Bredon is Cinder, or at the very least has a working relationship with Cinder as some suggest, it isn't a huge stretch to speculate that the Chandrian and him are pushing the Jakis family towards the throne
OP adds Chandrian backing: Cinder/Bredon steering the Jakis upward. — u/No1IsraelHaterMost think that the Jakis are responsible for the Surthen family deaths at sea since the Baron's lands are known as the pirate Isles. And Caudicus has a link to the Jakis family, having stayed on their estate.
Comment corroborates motive and means: pirate Isles plus Caudicus-Jakis link. — u/LostInStories222Ambrose was basically prancing around with delight a while back, telling everyone he could that Kvothe was dead. How would Ambrose "know" that unless he was part of it somehow?
Comment offers evidence Ambrose's family orchestrated Kvothe's shipwreck. — u/GratePumpkinCaudicus was willing to tell Kvothe gossipy stories about Baron Jakis. This is odd behavior if you're secretly in league with the Baron, who is powerful and vengeful … I've never heard a good reason for why Caudicus would do this if he really was working for Jakis.
CounterCounter: Caudicus's behaviour undercuts him being a Jakis confederate. — u/LostInStories222I also never felt Ambrose was involved with the Chancellor's sickness. … I find Denna more suspicious here. He falls sick right after she finds out that Kvothe has been studying Yllish.
CounterCounter: pins the Chancellor's illness on Denna, not the Jakis scheme. — u/LostInStories222
Book refs: NOTW, WMF
Tier reasoning§
tier confirmed: convenient-death pattern is suggestive but the Chandrian link is speculative
Contributors§
- u/LostInStories222 — corroborated · 19 pts
- u/EAT_SLEEP_DAB_REPEAT — countered · 3 pts