A Full Story-Format Prediction of How Book Three Unfolds
A speculative narrative predicting Kvothe's expulsion, the Vintish civil war, the Lackless box, and Bredon's Amyr role.
About: Kvothe, The Lackless Box, Bredon
Also involves: Ambrose Jakis, Maer Lerand Alveron, Denna, The Amyr, The Chandrian, Caudicus, Meluan Lackless, Laurian, The University, Severen, Imre, The Moon, The Doors of Stone
The theory§
Cast as a short story, this theory predicts the course of The Doors of Stone. Kvothe enjoys a profitable stretch at the University, advances in arcane rank, and is framed by Ambrose Jakis for malfeasance and expelled. He travels to Renere on the Maer's writ, where intrigue boils into a civil war that ends with Maer Alveron crowned king. Along the way he learns of his mother Netalia Lackless and of a missing princess, and discovers that Bredon, the courtly master of the beautiful game from Severen, is secretly one of the Amyr. Bredon reveals that the Chandrian exist to stop the Amyr from releasing Lyra, identified with the moon, and helps Kvothe steal the Lackless box. The box is opened when Denna reads the single Yllish-knot word 'blood' worked into it and Kvothe lets fall a drop of his own Lackless blood, revealing a shard of obsidian within.
Evidence§
Jackis successfully frames Kvothe for malfeasance, and Hemme expels him for something he didn't even do, after getting away with so much.
Core launch point: Ambrose frames Kvothe, leading to his expulsion from the University. — u/chainsawx72Kvothe tricks him into getting into a conflict with the other prince regents, leading to civil war. … The civil war continues and enrages, and many assassinations happen, leaving Maer Alveron King of Vint.
Predicts the Vintish civil war ending with Alveron crowned king. — u/chainsawx72Bredon admits to being secretly Amyr and helps Kvothe. He tells Kvothe that the purpose of the Chandrian is to kill the Amyr and keep them from releasing Lyra 'the moon'
Bredon as secret Amyr; frames the Chandrian-Amyr conflict over Lyra. — u/chainsawx72Kvothe and Bredon attempt to steal the lackless box, but Queen Meluan catches him in the act. Kvothe tells her he is her nephew
The Lackless box theft and Kvothe's revealed Lackless lineage. — u/chainsawx72Denna reads the single word 'blood' written on the box in Yllish knots, and Kvothe drops a drop of his own Lackless blood on the box, curiously revealing just an obsidian rock shard
The box-opening mechanism: Yllish-knot 'blood' plus Lackless blood reveals obsidian. — u/chainsawx72Caudicus admits to temporarily making the king sick … and that the Maer let him go after cutting off his thumbs, ears, and privates as a warning to other potential assassins.
OP keeps Caudicus alive to drive the Calanthis plot, despite his canonical capture. — u/chainsawx72Wasnt Caudicus “dealt with”?
CounterCounter: questions whether Caudicus could still be active, challenging that plot strand. — u/King_Esot3ricThere’s 0 chance this is how it will go, but I still enjoyed it
CounterCounter: a reader dismisses the prediction's accuracy while praising it as fiction. — u/devvorare
Book refs: NOTW, WMF
Tier reasoning§
speculative plot bundle, tier unchanged